Rwanda Economy to Grow by 7%

The National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) has refuted allegations of manipulating statistics its latest poverty report to paint a picture of a country making giant strides in eradicating poverty, pilule Chimp Corps report.

France 24 this week quoted Dr Filip Reyntjens, drug professor of African Law and Politics at the University of Antwerp and a renowned harsh critic of President Kagame, sildenafil as saying facts in “Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey” (EICV4) report focusing on the period 2013-14 were altered.

Reyntjens said, “The government changed the methodology, especially the poverty line, before publishing the report. So in the final report, instead of going up, poverty levels appear to have gone down by several percentage points.”

“We redid the calculations using the initial methodology, and the results show that the poverty rate actually rose by six percent in 2013-14,” he added.

To obtain this decrease in the poverty levels, alleged France 24, the authors modified the consumption criteria of the poorest Rwandans.

Gov’t fires back

However, NISR Director-General Yusuf Murangwa said the claims made about the integrity of Rwanda’s official development statistics by anonymous sources in a France 24 article of 2 November 2015 are fundamentally wrong.

“First, there was no change to the definition of poverty in Rwanda. It has remained fixed at 2,500 calories since the first EICV in 2000. That baseline is high in comparative perspective,” said Murangwa on Wednesday.

“Rwanda could have lowered the calorie threshold to align with the levels used by similar countries, but chose to maintain the higher baseline in order to be certain that the full picture of poverty and progress was captured.”

Murangwa further pointed out that an update to the composition of the statistical food basket used to measure poverty was long overdue, adding, “There have been enormous structural changes to production and consumption patterns in the past fifteen years, such as the introduction of maize as a staple crop. A model that failed to take account of these changes would yield distorted results.”

He observed that changes to the ratio of products in the food basket are made following a rigorous methodological process of the report including wide consultation with technical development partners.

“Rwanda and its development partners have invested heavily in reliable statistical capacity, abiding by international standards. Scrutiny of our work is welcome, and indeed beneficial. Ultimately the facts speak for themselves.”
The details of the cargo plane mysteriously carrying human beings that crashed in South Sudan capital Juba on Wednesday morning killing 25 people is finally out.

The four-engine turboprop aircraft Antonov An-12b cn (serial number) 01347704 was confirmed by the authorities as owned by a logistic company in South Sudan known as Allied Service Limited- Juba.

It crashed shortly after taking off from Juba International Airport. The aircraft`s registration number is EY406.

The plane was destined to the country’s only active oil field zone of Paloich in Upper Nile which is the second richest oil state.

Just 800 meters out of the airport, ambulance the plane went down badly falling on the banks of River Nile – killing everyone on board with the exception of a toddler.

The toddler was rushed to Juba Medical School.

Juba International Airport Director, viagra 100mg Naveen Gera said the plane belongs to Allied Services that has been operating in the world’s youngest nation for quite some time.

There was no documentation of the occupants, making it awfully difficult for the authority to determine their identities since most bodies were severely smashed and heads separated from the bodies.

The Red Cross and ministry of Health team assisted by the army who rushed to the scene to retrieve the bodies identified five Armenians and one Russian.

An online search by ChimpReports indicates that Antonov 12 cn 01347704 was previously owned by two other airline companies being acquired by Allied Services Limited Juba.

The first company that procured it from the manufacturer (Antonov) was Aeroflt- the Russian Federation biggest airline that is partly owned by the state and considered by many aviation analysts as the defacto national airline. Aeroflot used the registration number RA-11102.

The cargo carrier was acquired from Aeroflot by the British Gulf International Airlines operating in the Gulf States with one of the biggest hubs in Dubai. The new airline company changed the registration number from RA-11102 to EX 163.

The Allied Services Limited- Juba bought the pane from the British Gulf International Airlines and gave it a fresh registration number EY406.

ChimpReports has learnt that the similar plane type (Antonov 12) owned by Juba Air Cargo on 27 June 2008 had a related incident in the then united Sudan that killed five people on the current South Sudan soil.

The plane which had taken off from Khartoum Airport enroute to Juba crashed in the now Upper Nile capital Malakal when three engines failed in the flight due to thunderstorm.

The government of South Sudan is yet to make a formal address on the fatal incident.

ChimpReports will continue bringing updates about yesterday’s incident.
Rwanda’s growth projections for 2015 have been revised upward from 6.5 per cent to seven per cent.

The development comes after completion of the fourth Policy Support Instrument (PSI) review between Rwanda and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“Economic performance in 2015 has been stronger than expected, cheapest with growth in the first half of the year averaging 7.3 per cent. Construction and other services performed particularly strongly, page while agriculture and manufacturing grew roughly in line with expectations, ” the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Claver Gatete said on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, consumer price inflation increased in September due to higher food and utility prices and the depreciation of the Rwandan franc against the US dollar, but is forecast to remain below five per cent for 2015.

According to Ms Laure Redifer, head of the IMF team, policy performance through end-June 2015 was consistent with the programme framework, with almost all quantitative objectives reached.

“Significant progress was made on structural reforms, most notably on tax policy and administration. Planned reforms of the regime for agricultural taxes and for publishing quarterly reports on budget execution, however, are taking somewhat longer than originally anticipated,” she observed.

Looking forward, the risks to the economic outlook have increased, in light of lower global commodity prices and weaker growth prospects in Rwanda’s main export markets.  Mining activity in Rwanda has already been affected, with exports for 2015 and the near term forecast to drop substantially. This will put pressure on the balance of payments and as a result, economic growth in 2016 is projected to be between six and 6.5 per cent, compared to seven per cent previously anticipated.

The IMF mission welcomed the readiness of the Rwandan Government to take steps to tighten economic policies in response to the weaker external position, and encouraged them to continue to exercise exchange rate flexibility.

It also welcomed the government’s ambitious programme of forward-looking structural reforms aimed at strengthening the efficiency of public investment spending; improving tax compliance; broadening the tax base; and reinforcing accountability for budget execution.

The IMF’s Executive Board is expected to consider the 4th PSI review in December or January.

PSI is an instrument of the IMF designed for countries that do not need balance of payments financial support.

The PSI helps countries to design effective economic programmes that, once approved by the IMF’s Executive Board, signal to donors, multilateral development banks, and markets the Fund’s endorsement of a member’s policies.


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