Inside M7's War Plan Against Sudan
Sudan Vice President last month told a symposium in Cairo that Museveni was working tooth and nail to cause regime change in Khartoum.
Ali Osman Taha said the Ugandan leader publicly declared his intentions at an event held in New York last year when he spoke about a movement by the marginalized regions in Sudan to change the center of power in Khartoum on the pretexts of neglect and inequality in development.
Taha was probably referring to a meeting organized by the UN on September 27 2010 in New York to discuss South Sudan’s referendum on independence, which at the point was scheduled to take place four months later.
In that meeting, Museveni reportedly said that the problem in Sudan was that some groups were trying to run the state as an Arab country and disregard Africans while Sudan was an Afro-Arab country.
Museveni’s government did not deny the allegations.
Informed security officials told our investigations unit on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak freely to media, Taha’s statement was not swept under the carpet by Museveni’s government.
“We suspected Bashir would not look on idly amidst political and military troubles Khartoum is facing. Since Kony has been destroyed, we expect Bashir to sponsor ADF to explode bombs in Kampala,” said a security official.
Fearing radical steps from Bashir, Museveni flew to Israel On November 13.
During the Israel trip, the official said, Museveni discussed extensively the need to solve the South Sudan crisis as it was slowly graduating into a breeding ground for regional insecurity and terrorism.
Museveni further discussed the spread of Islam in the region with PM Binyamin Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres. Israel’s intelligence organ Mossad spends billions of dollars in fighting global terrorism.
Museveni secured the Israel pledge in combating radical Islamists in the region.
On November 16, Museveni rushed to Nairobi where he met counterparts Mwai Kibaki and Ahmed Sharif (Somalia). The presidents discussed regional terrorism and Somalia factor.
A day later – November 17, South Sudan President Salva Kiir rolled to Nairobi where he met Kibaki before flying to Entebbe in the evening for closed-door meetings with Museveni.
The beehive activity surrounding the Presidents’ trips were reportedly aimed at isolating Bashir ahead of a major Tsunami in Khartoum.
Hours before he landed at Entebbe Airport for a two-day State visit in Uganda, tension was boiling in Southern Sudan as Bashir’s war planes bombed South Kordofan State – the Nuba Mountains and the Blue Nile State.
On Friday, November 18, President Yoweri Museveni openly warned Sudan dictator Omar El Bashir of grave consequences once Khartoum continued air raids on Southern Sudan.
Flanked by his South Sudan counterpart Salva Kiir, Museveni told press at his residence in Entebbe.
“Bashir must stop organising aggression against the South. He has to stop. Let him go and deal with the agreements in the north.”
He fumed: “We are going to support Southern Sudan in cold and hot sun. Khartoum does not understand the word Sudan means black – the land of black people. I must repeat that Sudan is an Afro-Arab country. It was the mistake of Khartoum to manage Southern Sudan as an Arab county. That was a big mistake,” Museveni charged.
Speaking with fury, the President made it very clear to all and sundry that no one could stop the Southern Sudanese' right of self-determination.
"Bashir must end this hostility against the South. We cannot support people who are out of their minds," Museveni added.
It was the first time in recent years that Museveni was publicly issuing threats to Sudan, statements that gave credence to reports that Kampala was supporting a clandestine movement of rebels to oust Bashir.
THE FIVE MAGIC TRICKS M7 WILL USE TO OUST BASHIR
The first one is use of 100 senior US military advisors in Kampala. According to President Barack Obama, the Special Forces are to coordinate ‘with regional forces’ in dealing the final blow against LRA bushman Joseph Kony. All Museveni needs is to provide bases to US troops to coordinate with Southern Sudanese forces on kicking out Bashir.
Before Libyan despot Col. Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown, US, Britain and French military advisers worked hard to train and equip anti-Gaddafi forces in Benghazi. Six months down the road, NATO helped Libyans oust a man once believed to be invincible. Unlike Gaddafi who was hated mainly by his people, Bashir is loathed by the entire region.
Around November 11, a new alliance of four principal rebel forces from Darfur, South Kordofan and the Blue Nile under the name Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) was formed.
A few days later, the SRF were invited to join another two major rebel movements - Kush of the Nubians of the Northern Region and the Beja Congress of Eastern Sudan.
SRF’s main objective is to oust Bashir and reports earlier indicated United Nations was funneling arms and supplies to the rebels.
The abrupt solidarity of the rebel groups in fighting Bashir has fuelled speculation of US links.
Therefore, the US troops in Uganda will arm and train a new joint rebel force recently formed in Southern Sudan to give Bashir a bloody nose.
The second trick Museveni will use is encouraging massive anti-Bashir demonstrations in Khartoum. Like Gaddafi, the Sudan despot has been ruthlessly suppressing civil liberties of his own people. In the recent months, Bashir has been making good use of bullets to crush Khartoum protests. Faced with protests in the city, a rebellion in the south, a hostile international media and ICC arrest warrants hanging on his head, Bashir’s spine will be demolished.
Museveni will as well encourage the International Criminal Court (ICC) to reign in on Bashir for atrocities committed in Darfur. Already, Bashir is wanted for crimes against humanity at ICC. The Court’s chief prosecutor Moreno Ocampo is a very good friend of Museveni. When IPC youths petitioned Ocampo to probe the killing of 19 rioters during the 2009 Kayunga riots, Ocampo turned a deaf ear. IPC youths later staged a protest against Ocampo’s visit to Kampala in 2010, saying he was a biased man. However, the ICC boss said he had no time for ‘political statements.’
The fourth trick is pursuing a no-fly-zone over areas which Bashir bombs every morning from left, centre and right.
The SPLMN Representative to the United States of America, Anwar Elhaj and his Deputy Philip Tutu, recently concluded a series of meetings with a number of US Administration Agencies, Think Tanks, Advocacy Groups and Humanitarian Voluntary Organizations concerned with the situations in South Sudan.
Two meetings were held at the US State Department with assistants and the advisors of the US Special envoy to Sudan Ambassador Princeton Lyman on October 28 and November 8.
Another meeting was arranged with the Director of the Sudan Program at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). This meeting was also attended by a number of representatives and organizations including Congress members staffers, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), The Woodrow Wilson International Center, The Netherland Embassy to the USA and other NGOs concerned with Sudan issues.
During the meetings, South Sudan officials discussed the unremitting random aerial bombardments against civilians’ villages, farms, pasture, cattle and water resources in the South Kordofan and the Blue Nile States that forced civilians to seek refuge across the boarders in the Republic of Southern Sudan or into Ethiopia or hide in caves and valleys.
If such a disastrous situation continued undeterred, they reasoned, the consequences would be far beyond the imagination of everyone in the region or the international community.
They sought an imposition of a no-fly zone over the States of the Blue Nile, South Kordofan and which would help to protect the lives of innocent civilians so that when the international humanitarian organizations and workers are permitted to operate, they should find somebody to shelter, feed and treat, or soon the area will completely be deserted and depopulated.
In his words before an imposition of the no-fly-zone in Libya US Defence Secretary Robert Gates elaborated: “Let's just call a spade a spade. A no-fly zone begins with an attack on Libya to destroy the air defenses ... and then you can fly planes around the country and not worry about our guys being shot down.” Should Juba’s plea for a no-fly-zone get a nod from the international community, Bashir is likely to begin his journey as a rebel.
The last nail in Bashir’s political coffin will be the international media. Apparently, over 90% of western media is controlled by their governments. In the eyes of the international community, Bashir is viewed as bloodthirsty tyrant who caused genocide in Darfur that left over 2 million dead. Negative coverage will isolate Bashir ahead of his downfall.
DOES M7 HAVE THE CLOUT?
Well, much as Bashir is militarily at his strongest, Museveni will avoid a direct confrontation with him but put the dictator in the line of US fire. Museveni helped Rwanda’s RPF to capture power, thus installing President Paul Kagame.
He also coordinated the end of Sseseko Mobutu’s regime thus installing the Kabilas. In Somalia, Museveni has supported Sharif’s hold on power while in Southern Sudan, it was Museveni who supported SPLA with logistics to secede from Khartoum. When a UN report accused Isaias Afewerki of arming Al Shabaab in Somalia, Eritrea’s leader rushed to Kampala on a ‘peace-making’ trip with Museveni.
Museveni is now a regional kingmaker supported entirely by United States but analysts concur peace in the region will have a chance once Bashir is out of power.
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Updated on 2013-05-09 09:25
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