Politics

Besigye Threatens Mass Civil Disobedience Ahead of 2016

Kizza Besigye

Low prices in the global oil market presents Uganda with the opportunity to develop a sustainable and robust petroleum industry, buy information pills http://covintec.cl/wp-includes/post-template.php industry players and analysts have predicted.

Developing cost-saving work methods, approved http://chamberhealthcoop.com/wp-admin/includes/network.php linking oil revenue to fiscal systems, building oil refinery, taking advantage of reduced public pressure, and leasing out new exploration blocks are some of the opportunities identified.

The global oil prices fell to less than $65 per barrel, from the previous $105 recorded last year due to excess surplus.

In response to low prices, oil firms are restructuring and cutting back spending on hydrocarbon exploration and development.

Bloomberg reports that oil companies reduced their capital expenditure by about $129b, which has resulted into over 100,000 jobs lost.

Tullow Oil, in its 2014 annual report and accounts, stated that it was considering slashing its exploration budget to $200m this year from $799m spent last year.

ExxonMobil chairman, Rex Tillerson, warned that low oil prices could continue for at least the next couple of years.

Cost-saving work measures

However, industry players and analysts have said rather than just sit and wait for the prices to rise again; there are some opportunities that the industry can exploit during this period.

Moses Ekunu, an oil and gas management professional, said developing cost-saving measures is needed if the industry is to continue operating profitably despite the low prices.

“Oil companies and host governments should therefore be willing to invest in cost-saving research studies and cost-saving technological innovations,” he said.

Ekunu was presenting a paper titled: “maximising the opportunities presented by the low oil prices” at Africa Exploration and Production 2015 Show Catalogue in London last week (3 – 4 September).

Patrick Pouyanné the Total Exploration and Production chief executive officer in New York Times predicted that the break-even cost could go as low as $50 per barrel in the future with the increasing innovations and development in technology.

The acting director of the Uganda’s directorate of petroleum directorate, Ernest Rubondo, has always expressed the view that technology can enhance oil recoverable rates for both the government and oil companies’ advantage.

Linking oil revenues to fiscal system

The low oil prices have also forced countries to reconsider their fiscal regimes to maximise revenue collections from the oil assets.

In order to ensure that the industry remains profitable despite the low oil prices, according to Wood Mackenzie which is a business intelligence firm, some countries have negotiated fiscal terms which are linked to the oil price.

It is a shift from the sliding scale system always linked to production volumes which is not favourable to governments during this period of low oil prices because some taxes are only charged above a certain oil price.

“The challenge with this system is that it favours the licensees (oil companies) and ignores the revenue needs of the host country,” Ekunu noted.

“This could attract negative sharp criticism from the host communities and activists and probably lead to low price complacency in the industry.”

He advised that the oil industry undertakes a holistic approach of relating fiscal terms especially those on sliding scale to the total revenue generated rather than just on the price or on the number of barrels produced.

“This is ideal because total revenue generated incorporates both production volumes and oil price and clearly puts into consideration the needs of both the host country and the licensee,” Ekunu said.

“It is also clear that the sliding scale system which is always linked to production volumes is not favourable to the industry players during this period of low oil prices because higher production volumes do not necessarily reflect higher revenue.”

Building a refinery

Whereas the prices of crude oil have drastically dropped, there has not been a corresponding decline in fuel pump prices.

It is the price of the raw material (crude oil) which has fallen and not of the finished products.

“Having realised that refined oil is still profitable, countries and indeed the industry at large needs to consider setting up refineries to refine their own crude with preferably each country refining their own crude,” reasoned Ekunu.

“This will as well make it possible for countries themselves to regulate the price which will protect the industry from drastic price fluctuation and the associated negative impacts.”

Uganda has already awarded a contract to Russia’s RT Global Resources to construct a refinery in a phased-development plan.

The Russians are to own a 60 percent stake while government will own 40 percent in the oil refinery.

East African partner states are to own 10 percent of the 40 percent allocated to government.

The Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Energy And Mineral Development, Dr Fred Kabagambe-Kaliisa, stated that after completion of the negotiations and agreements, the lead investor will constitute a refinery company – a special-purpose vehicle – that will undertake the project.

Taking advantage of reduced public pressure

In countries where petroleum has recently been discovered, citizens are pressurising governments to start commercial oil production to generate petrodollars.

The country which so far managed to meet public expectation along the production lines is Ghana where the first oil production milestone was achieved only 41 months after the Jubilee field was discovered.

According to Offshore, this was without a doubt an enviable record for any offshore development, particularly in a frontier deep-water area such as that found off Ghana, and this indeed earned Ghana some petrodollars at the time when the prices were still high.

However, according to Newbase energy news, this field did not meet all the public expectations for example the revenue anticipated from this field fell short by about $410m.

This field has since then experienced further technical problems, according to Financial Times, Reuters and Upstream media reports.

The pace in some countries is however not as impressive and this has generated a lot of questions from the public questioning why this delay is arising with some using the jubilee field as their benchmark.

The Guardian reports that there is a race in East Africa to see which country will emerge as the region’s first oil producer and all this is to an extent a result of increased public demand for oil revenues.

The low oil prices have in a way helped countries which have been feeling this kind of pressure to ‘buy some time’ where they can now concentrate on doing their work with minimum public pressure.

“The industry should therefore use this as an opportunity to put in place the required infrastructure, personnel and a framework to develop their nascent sectors,” noted Ekunu.

“Moreover, when the price of oil rises again, the public pressure could become immense as they will be demanding for production to start almost immediately in fear of further price drops.”

Leasing out new exploration blocks

Whereas budget cuts were inevitable, the current situation presents an opportunity for the oil companies to acquire new blocks since the competition for these blocks is arguably low at this time.

An example is Uganda which is currently undertaking the licensing process for 2,938 square kilometres of its high potential acreage.

This was a huge opportunity for companies to acquire such promising exploration blocks with a very high potential however the budget cuts by most companies constrained them,” noted Ekunu.

“Now that the oil prices are low and this is anticipated to continue for some time, the industry needs to adopt measures that will make it continue operating profitably despite the low prices, and also maximise the opportunities that the low oil prices have presented.”
Low prices in the global oil market presents Uganda with the opportunity to develop a sustainable and robust petroleum industry, hospital http://cognac-ambassador.com/wp-includes/class.wp-dependencies.php industry players and analysts have predicted.

Developing cost-saving work methods, prostate http://chagoscantina.com/wp-includes/class-wp-image-editor.php linking oil revenue to fiscal systems, physician building oil refinery, taking advantage of reduced public pressure, and leasing out new exploration blocks are some of the opportunities identified.

The global oil prices fell to less than $65 per barrel, from the previous $105 recorded last year due to excess surplus.

In response to low prices, oil firms are restructuring and cutting back spending on hydrocarbon exploration and development.

Bloomberg reports that oil companies reduced their capital expenditure by about $129b, which has resulted into over 100,000 jobs lost.

Tullow Oil, in its 2014 annual report and accounts, stated that it was considering slashing its exploration budget to $200m this year from $799m spent last year.

ExxonMobil chairman, Rex Tillerson, warned that low oil prices could continue for at least the next couple of years.

Cost-saving work measures

However, industry players and analysts have said rather than just sit and wait for the prices to rise again; there are some opportunities that the industry can exploit during this period.

Moses Ekunu, an oil and gas management professional, said developing cost-saving measures is needed if the industry is to continue operating profitably despite the low prices.

“Oil companies and host governments should therefore be willing to invest in cost-saving research studies and cost-saving technological innovations,” he said.

Ekunu was presenting a paper titled: “maximising the opportunities presented by the low oil prices” at Africa Exploration and Production 2015 Show Catalogue in London last week (3 – 4 September).

Patrick Pouyanné the Total Exploration and Production chief executive officer in New York Times predicted that the break-even cost could go as low as $50 per barrel in the future with the increasing innovations and development in technology.

The acting director of the Uganda’s directorate of petroleum directorate, Ernest Rubondo, has always expressed the view that technology can enhance oil recoverable rates for both the government and oil companies’ advantage.

Linking oil revenues to fiscal system

The low oil prices have also forced countries to reconsider their fiscal regimes to maximise revenue collections from the oil assets.

In order to ensure that the industry remains profitable despite the low oil prices, according to Wood Mackenzie which is a business intelligence firm, some countries have negotiated fiscal terms which are linked to the oil price.

It is a shift from the sliding scale system always linked to production volumes which is not favourable to governments during this period of low oil prices because some taxes are only charged above a certain oil price.

“The challenge with this system is that it favours the licensees (oil companies) and ignores the revenue needs of the host country,” Ekunu noted.

“This could attract negative sharp criticism from the host communities and activists and probably lead to low price complacency in the industry.”

He advised that the oil industry undertakes a holistic approach of relating fiscal terms especially those on sliding scale to the total revenue generated rather than just on the price or on the number of barrels produced.

“This is ideal because total revenue generated incorporates both production volumes and oil price and clearly puts into consideration the needs of both the host country and the licensee,” Ekunu said.

“It is also clear that the sliding scale system which is always linked to production volumes is not favourable to the industry players during this period of low oil prices because higher production volumes do not necessarily reflect higher revenue.”

Building a refinery

Whereas the prices of crude oil have drastically dropped, there has not been a corresponding decline in fuel pump prices.

It is the price of the raw material (crude oil) which has fallen and not of the finished products.

“Having realised that refined oil is still profitable, countries and indeed the industry at large needs to consider setting up refineries to refine their own crude with preferably each country refining their own crude,” reasoned Ekunu.

“This will as well make it possible for countries themselves to regulate the price which will protect the industry from drastic price fluctuation and the associated negative impacts.”

Uganda has already awarded a contract to Russia’s RT Global Resources to construct a refinery in a phased-development plan.

The Russians are to own a 60 percent stake while government will own 40 percent in the oil refinery.

East African partner states are to own 10 percent of the 40 percent allocated to government.

The Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Energy And Mineral Development, Dr Fred Kabagambe-Kaliisa, stated that after completion of the negotiations and agreements, the lead investor will constitute a refinery company – a special-purpose vehicle – that will undertake the project.

Taking advantage of reduced public pressure

In countries where petroleum has recently been discovered, citizens are pressurising governments to start commercial oil production to generate petrodollars.

The country which so far managed to meet public expectation along the production lines is Ghana where the first oil production milestone was achieved only 41 months after the Jubilee field was discovered.

According to Offshore, this was without a doubt an enviable record for any offshore development, particularly in a frontier deep-water area such as that found off Ghana, and this indeed earned Ghana some petrodollars at the time when the prices were still high.

However, according to Newbase energy news, this field did not meet all the public expectations for example the revenue anticipated from this field fell short by about $410m.

This field has since then experienced further technical problems, according to Financial Times, Reuters and Upstream media reports.

The pace in some countries is however not as impressive and this has generated a lot of questions from the public questioning why this delay is arising with some using the jubilee field as their benchmark.

The Guardian reports that there is a race in East Africa to see which country will emerge as the region’s first oil producer and all this is to an extent a result of increased public demand for oil revenues.

The low oil prices have in a way helped countries which have been feeling this kind of pressure to ‘buy some time’ where they can now concentrate on doing their work with minimum public pressure.

“The industry should therefore use this as an opportunity to put in place the required infrastructure, personnel and a framework to develop their nascent sectors,” noted Ekunu.

“Moreover, when the price of oil rises again, the public pressure could become immense as they will be demanding for production to start almost immediately in fear of further price drops.”

Leasing out new exploration blocks

Whereas budget cuts were inevitable, the current situation presents an opportunity for the oil companies to acquire new blocks since the competition for these blocks is arguably low at this time.

An example is Uganda which is currently undertaking the licensing process for 2,938 square kilometres of its high potential acreage.

This was a huge opportunity for companies to acquire such promising exploration blocks with a very high potential however the budget cuts by most companies constrained them,” noted Ekunu.

“Now that the oil prices are low and this is anticipated to continue for some time, the industry needs to adopt measures that will make it continue operating profitably despite the low prices, and also maximise the opportunities that the low oil prices have presented.”
In what looks like a declaration of protracted battle with the government, case http://crmsoftwareblog.com/wp-includes/ms-blogs.php FDC 2016 flag-bearer Dr Kizza Besigye has warned that President Museveni should expect consequences if the proposed electoral reforms are not implemented.

Speaking at a press conference in Kampala on Friday morning, Besigye warned that government has up to October 18 to act of deal with what he described as a “people’s struggle.”

Besigye said, “If by October 18 government does not respond, a committee comprising myself, Norbert Mao an Asuman Basalirwa will be engaging the public to take power.”

The FDC strongman’s comments come just a day after the Democratic Alliance tasked the ruling NRM government to immediately call for dialogue on how political and electoral reforms as enshrined in the Citizens Compact on Free and Fair elections can be implemented ahead of the 2016 general elections.

“In the interest of ensuring peace and stability in our country, we demand for genuine dialogue with the government to agree over reforms; we remain open to such dialogue until September 18, 2015 and demand response by this time,” revealed TDA spokesperson, Wafula Oguttu while addressing journalists in Naguru on Wednesday.

Observers say the alliance of opposition groups are ratcheting up rhetoric to prepare the public for a possible conflict.

Oguttu yesterday said, “Should government remain stubborn and intransigent as it has continued to do, TDA will in consultation with the citizens agree on and take appropriate actions.”

Besigye toughens

Besigye today argued that “Ugandans are held captive by a military junta and seeking their freedom in their country. The struggle will continue until power returns to the people.”

He also submitted that, “Until freedom I achieved, every Ugandan must fight for it. I am glad that the citizens are already charged and you will see them assert their will.”

Besigye expressed joy that TDA had resolved to stick to reforms before elections hence setting an ultimatum upon which government must act on them.

The Electoral Reforms include disbanding the current Electoral Commission which government have opposed.

Several reforms were recently adopted by Parliament but opposition claims majority of their proposals were ignored.

Presidency Minister Frank Tumwebaze recently told ChimpReports that Electoral Reforms is “something they have been rehearsing for some time to cover up their own inabilities of failing to win new political ground and therefore divert attention from the inevitable defeat that awaits them come 2016.”

Tumwebaze further argued that “the chorus for ‘electoral reforms’ therefore, is the perfect scapegoat they can find.”

he pointed out that, “Politics like any other venture requires hard work and not just mere posturing. You cannot win an election that you have not mobilized for.”

Besigye told the media today that despite calling for reforms, “preparations for elections are still ongoing alongside the fight for free and fair elections.”

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