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Politics

SPECIAL ANALYSIS: Why Mafabi Cannot Lead FDC To Victory In 2016

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viagra buy http://conceive.ca/wp-admin/includes/class-ftp-sockets.php geneva;”>The poll released Tuesday night shows that Gen Mugisha Muntu is leading with a 49 percent margin in the FDC presidential race with Mafabi coming second in the contest at 25 percent and MP Geoffrey Ekanya trailing with 3 percent.

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search geneva;”>The global research company commissioned this opinion poll between September 25 to October 3 with the aim of assessing the opinions of the FDC delegates about the ongoing party campaigns to choose the leader of FDC.

Research World International designed and implemented a Public Opinion Telephonic Survey to assess the opinions and drivers of choice for the FDC leadership.

The total sample was 500 but the firm managed to reach 445 delegates who were talked to and their opinion sought. This is 60 percent of the total delegates, implying majority talked to the firm’s researchers.

Contacted, Shawn Mubiru, a member on Mafabi’s campaign publicity team described the poll findings as “rubbish.”

He also attacked the firm’s country director Dr Patrick Wakida, describing him as “fraudster.”

“All we advise Wakida and his crew that we came into this campaign well prepared we know our support well enough than he knows. We are winning this election with a wide margin of votes not polls,” said Mubiru.

“We have told Wakida that first of all he has an interest in this FDC Party Presidential election. He is a delegate representing Kibuku and a well known Muntu supporter. He has been telling delegates to support Muntu so how independent can his findings be?” wondered Mubiru.

However, Wakida said he is not surprised by the rumblings in the Mafabi camp, adding, politicians are sometimes allergic to such polls whose findings do not favour them.

STATISTICS EXPOSE MAFABI’S WEAKNESSES

Chimp Corps further carried out research to examine Mafabi’s performance in the 2011 presidential elections considering that in his manifesto, he claims to have ‘delivered’ Bugisu (Elgon) sub region to FDC.

Statistics obtained from the Electoral Commission indicate that out of six districts (Mbale, Manafwa, Sironko, Bulambuli, Bududa and Kapchorwa) Col Kizza Besigye got an average of 25 percent of votes cast while President Yoweri Museveni scored a whopping 78 percent.

It is important to note Mafabi was Besigye’s campaign strategist for this region.

In Mbale, Besigye obtained 40,827 votes (35 percent) while Museveni scored 71,718 votes which is 62.5 percent of total votes cast.

In Manafwa, Besigye earned a paltry 20,138 votes (21.26 percent) yet Museveni had 72,885 votes which translate into 76 percent.

In Sironko the home district of Mafabi, Besigye managed with 30,124 votes which is 46 percent compared to Museveni’s 34,479 votes (52.7 percent.)

In Bulambuli the FDC presidential candidate settled for 7,511 votes which is just 7.7 percent yet Museveni triumphed with 33,788 votes which is 80.7 percent.

A glimpse at Bududa statistics shows that Besigye secured only 7,488 votes – that is 19.38 percent while Museveni got a staggering 30, 530 votes which translate into 79 percent.

It is important not to ignore Kapchorwa where Museveni emerged victorious with 24,035 votes (78 percent) while Besigye did not earn more than 6,343 votes (20.6 percent).

In short, Museveni won with a landslide of 72 percent in Elgon sub region which was under Mafabi.

Yet a close look at the 2011 presidential election statistics of Bukedi region (Budaka, Busia, Butaleja, Pallisa, Kibuku and Tororo), Besigye got more votes in this area than in Mafabi’s.

In this region, which was under the ‘command’ of MP Geoffrey Ekanya, saw Besigye obtain an average 26 percent compared to Mafabi’s Elgon where the FDC presidential candidate settled for only 25 percent.

As if this is not enough, in Ekyanya’s region Museveni scored only 69 percent which is slightly lower than in Mafabi’s Elgon where the President scooped 72 percent of total votes cast.

And to confirm that FDC Secretary General, Alice Alaso, is more popular than Mafabi and a better mobiliser, she ensured Museveni never got more than 50 percent of the vote in Teso sub region which was under her control in the 2011 elections.

And in this area, according to statistics, Besigye got a staggering 46 percent compared to 25 percent in Mafabi’s Elgon region.

This means Besigye lost to Museveni by only 4 percent in Alaso’s area compared to the 47 percent margin in Mafabi’s.

In Lango sub region, Besigye got 30 percent while Museveni obtained 58 percent of total votes cast while in West Nile the FDC leader managed 29 percent and the President 64 percent.

This implies the FDC leader performed better in four sub regions (Bukedi, Teso, Lango and west Nile) than in Mafabi’s Elgon. In short, the Elgon region was one of the areas where Besigye was badly beaten by Museveni.

Yet in Ntungamo, where Museveni and wife Janet Museveni were born and a renowned NRM stronghold, Muntu ‘delivered’ 33,628 votes (23 percent) to Besigye though Museveni obtained 75 percent.

The revelation could bring to question Mafabi’s ability to ‘deliver’ the entire country to the opposition in the 2016 presidential elections considering that he miserably failed in his own sub region and even home district.

Nevertheless, Mafabi says he will build party structures which Muntu failed to do during the latter’s era as FDC Chief Mobiliser.

However, Muntu says he gave it his all to build structures but lacked adequate funds, adding the party should accept “collective responsibility” for this failure.

The FDC presidential election is due next month.

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